Possible scenario
Kyiv Pauses Refinery Strikes
38% Chance
Ukraine accepts the U.S. warning and suspends attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to preserve intelligence flows. Kyiv redirects long-range drones toward military depots, air-defense sites, and rail logistics while arguing publicly that Russian power-grid attacks remain unanswered.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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