Possible scenario
Enforcement Response
25% Chance
U.S. and allied authorities use the Lazarus attribution to expand wallet blacklists and coordinate with major exchanges. The response is meaningful for crypto compliance but too narrow to affect broader financial markets.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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