Possible scenario
NATO Counter-Sabotage Escalates
25% Chance
Denmark shares intelligence with NATO allies pointing to Russian military intelligence or affiliated cutouts. The alliance responds with expulsions, sanctions, cyber defense measures, and covert disruption rather than direct military retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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