Possible scenario
Direct Military Exchange
22% Chance
A new missile launch, drone strike, or tanker casualty pushes Washington and Tehran into direct military action beyond naval posturing. This remains less likely than controlled escalation but is plausible after the rejection of Iran's ceasefire and Tehran's statement that talks are no longer trusted.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.