Possible scenario
Controlled Hormuz Escalation
42% Chance
Iran keeps talks frozen and continues calibrated military pressure in the Strait of Hormuz without fully closing the waterway. Washington maintains the oil-export blockade and escorts more commercial shipping, producing a tense but contained confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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