Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
26% Chance
Despite Tehran's public rejection of trust in U.S. talks, Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries reopen an indirect channel focused narrowly on shipping safety. Both sides preserve hardline rhetoric while testing a limited pause to prevent an uncontrolled oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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