Possible scenario
War Risk Escalates
20% Chance
Fresh Iranian or Iran-linked threats raise the perceived risk to Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping lanes. In this scenario, the gas listing becomes secondary to concerns over export continuity, insurance costs and Hormuz transit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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