Possible scenario
Normalization Extends
45% Chance
Middle East exports remain close to the reported 12.8 million bpd as Hormuz traffic, Saudi bypass flows and Gulf port operations keep improving. This is the base case because the timeline shows a steady progression from cease-fire to reopening, OPEC+ output hikes and Saudi pipeline restart.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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