Possible scenario
Fragile Security Recovery
20% Chance
Export volumes recover, but insurers, shippers and naval authorities remain cautious after the February war. This scenario produces choppy oil pricing rather than a full reversal of the recovery.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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