Possible scenario
Russian Tactics Spread
32% Chance
Russia adapts quickly and uses mobile or disposable relay nodes to maintain drone guidance despite Ukrainian jamming. This outcome fits the recent pattern of escalating drone volumes and repeated strikes on Kyiv communications and transport targets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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