Possible scenario
Race Remains Stable
22% Chance
The controversy reinforces existing partisan views rather than changing many votes. Democrats see the ad as an attack on Acton's family, Republicans see it as fair character scrutiny, and undecided voters remain focused on costs, abortion, health care, and state competence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.