Possible scenario
DPRK Network Adapts
20% Chance
Lazarus has repeatedly adapted after sanctions and exchange freezes, so a significant probability is that the group routes around the exposed Chinese network. The near-term market impact depends on whether the adaptation is seen as contained or as proof that laundering controls remain ineffective.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.6%
Tickers
- COIN-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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