Possible scenario
Transit Bloc Divides
27% Chance
Iran uses the offer to split global energy consumers, letting selected Asian and regional buyers move while keeping pressure on U.S. allies. The result is a two-tier tanker market with persistent disruption for European, Japanese, and South Korean cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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