Possible scenario
Selective Transit Stabilizes
38% Chance
Iran turns the offer into a working selective-transit regime, giving advance clearance to tankers serving China, India, Oman, Qatar, and other governments it labels friendly. This reduces the immediate fear of a total Hormuz shutdown but keeps a discriminatory framework in place against U.S.-aligned shippers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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