Possible scenario
Naval Escalation Returns
22% Chance
The selective-transit offer collapses into another military flashpoint as the United States rejects Iran’s right to decide which tankers pass. Given recent attacks on escorted tankers and U.S.-linked oil shipments, a renewed incident remains a serious near-term risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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