Possible scenario
Sabotage Attribution Escalates
30% Chance
The FSB or Russia's National Anti-Terrorism Committee attributes the blasts to Ukrainian intelligence-linked sabotage. Moscow uses the incident to justify retaliatory drone and missile strikes, but avoids direct escalation against NATO territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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