Eritrean Buffer Standoff

Eritrean forces establish a de facto buffer in northern Tigray while Ethiopian federal units hold Mekelle and avoid a direct push toward the Eritrean border. This is the most likely near-term outcome because both Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki have incentives to prevent an immediate interstate war, even as neither side trusts the other.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.