Possible scenario
Military Escalation Resumes
28% Chance
The Houthis reject the Saudi-UN initiative and attempt to prove that an embargo cannot constrain their arsenal. The near-term risk is another strike cycle against Saudi airports, energy assets, or Red Sea-linked logistics.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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