Possible scenario
Mediation Gains Traction
20% Chance
Oman, the UN envoy, and back-channel Iranian contacts produce a limited de-escalation track after the airport deaths. Riyadh prioritizes border security and airport protection, while the Houthis seek humanitarian and economic concessions without formally disarming.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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