Possible scenario
French Fiscal Breakthrough
18% Chance
French political leaders respond to the market stress with a credible near-term fiscal package or budget compromise. The move reduces immediate redenomination and downgrade concerns, but implementation risk remains high given parliamentary fragmentation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.9%
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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