Possible scenario
Israeli Pressure Campaign
22% Chance
Israel responds with cyber operations, sabotage attempts, and explicit military threats while avoiding a large immediate strike. This path is plausible because Israel has already shown willingness to hit Iranian nuclear infrastructure but may prefer calibrated pressure to full escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.