Possible scenario
Contained Nuclear Restart
40% Chance
Iran resumes activity at Minzadayi but keeps the site below an overt weapons-threshold posture, likely to preserve leverage without inviting a major Israeli or U.S. response. The IAEA remains partly engaged, and markets treat the news as a contained geopolitical risk rather than a regional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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