Possible scenario
Democratic Momentum Holds
35% Chance
The voter-registration improvement proves to be an early sign of stronger Democratic organization after years of Iowa drifting right. Farm-income stress, suburban frustration, and renewed national attention help Democrats keep the Senate race rated a true tossup.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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