Possible scenario
UN Maritime Diplomacy
35% Chance
Pakistan's call adds pressure from a major Muslim-majority state with ties to Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United States. The most likely near-term path is a diplomatic push at the UN that creates limited openings without fully resolving the Hormuz blockade or Houthi Red Sea threat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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