Possible scenario
Managed Chokepoint Stalemate
30% Chance
Iran keeps meaningful restrictions in place while avoiding a direct clash with U.S. or Gulf forces. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and buyers in Asia rely on pipelines, storage, rerouting, and higher insurance costs, creating a tense but manageable disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.