Possible scenario
Escort Coalition Expands
20% Chance
The United States and partners respond to diplomatic pressure and commercial disruption by expanding naval escorts through Hormuz while continuing Red Sea patrols near Bab al-Mandab. This reduces uncertainty for some cargoes but raises the risk of accidental encounters with Iranian or Houthi forces.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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