Possible scenario
Ukraine Targets Base
25% Chance
Ukraine treats the base as a high-value target and attempts to disrupt it before daily launch volumes peak. The outcome depends on whether Kyiv can identify storage, fuel, and command nodes rather than merely damaging runways or launch pads.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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