Possible scenario
Sanctions Bite Exports
35% Chance
The 22 new tanker designations materially disrupt Iran's export logistics because they follow earlier vessel seizures, trading-network sanctions, and fresh satellite evidence of ship-to-ship transfers. Chinese independent refiners still buy discounted barrels, but fewer ships and higher compliance risk reduce flows for several weeks.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Tickers
- FRO+1.8%
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.