Possible scenario
China Iran Backlash
20% Chance
China and Iran push back diplomatically against the US campaign, arguing that unilateral sanctions threaten energy security and maritime trade. Most backlash is likely to remain rhetorical, but the risk of retaliation or Gulf harassment is not negligible given recent vessel seizures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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