Possible scenario
Democratic Frictions Persist
18% Chance
The rally does not fully settle tensions between progressive, Arab American, labor, and establishment Democratic blocs. El-Sayed remains viable, but turnout and message discipline become more uncertain than Democrats would prefer.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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