Possible scenario
UN Containment Track
30% Chance
Eritrea's appeal gives the UN, African Union and Gulf states a channel to slow the escalation. Ethiopia maintains military pressure but accepts talks or monitoring steps to avoid broader sanctions and international isolation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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