Possible scenario
Interstate War Expands
38% Chance
Eritrea's UN appeal fails to stop rapid military escalation, and both governments frame the conflict as defensive. Fighting spreads from contested border zones into Tigray and Afar, with rising risks to Red Sea logistics and regional diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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