Possible scenario
Contained Border Standoff
45% Chance
The most likely path is a tense but managed deployment on both sides of the border, with U.S. Northern Command and Mexico's Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional avoiding direct confrontation. Both governments have incentives to show resolve against cartels while keeping ports of entry and bilateral trade functioning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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