Possible scenario
Plan Is Reversed
20% Chance
Authorities reverse or materially alter the early-release plan after renewed scrutiny of the case. This outcome is less likely because early-release decisions are usually process-driven, but a new risk finding or procedural flaw could change the result.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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