Possible scenario
Beijing Tests Boundaries
20% Chance
China uses Johnson's reference to Taiwan independence to increase pressure on Taipei and warn Washington against changing its policy. The most likely Chinese response would be calibrated military or diplomatic signaling rather than an immediate blockade or direct clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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