Possible scenario
Russian Tactical Outreach
18% Chance
Moscow uses the direct-contact format to test divisions inside NATO and the EU, presenting itself as open to dialogue while making no concessions on Ukraine. Nordic leaders respond by coordinating messaging with Brussels, Washington and Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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