Possible scenario
Contact Breaks Down
10% Chance
The direct-contact effort fails after a renewed intimidation episode, airspace violation, cyber operation or maritime incident involving Russian-linked activity. This is less likely than managed dialogue, but the regional backdrop makes a breakdown plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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