Possible scenario
Broader Pact Emerges
15% Chance
A less likely but plausible upside case is that the 2027 truce becomes a platform for broader economic bargaining. Both sides could add agricultural purchases, customs enforcement, licensing reviews, and investment channels while avoiding the most sensitive national-security restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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