Possible scenario
Red Sea Disruption
22% Chance
The Houthis seek to offset battlefield pressure by reopening the Red Sea front, threatening shipping near Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. This outcome has a larger market footprint because it directly affects trade routes, insurance costs and oil-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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