Coalition Makes Gains

The internationally recognized Yemeni government, backed by Saudi coordination and local tribal mobilization, makes meaningful territorial gains but does not quickly seize all Houthi-held areas. This is the most likely path because the Houthis are under pressure after recent losses, but entrenched defenses around Sanaa, Saada and Hodeidah remain difficult to break.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.