Possible scenario
Street Clashes Spread
25% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that the Manhattan attack becomes a rallying point for both pro-Palestinian activists and pro-Israel counterprotesters. Large demonstrations around synagogues, universities, and Israeli consular sites create several days of police deployments in major cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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