Possible scenario
Red Sea Truce Frays
26% Chance
The fighting raises the risk that the Houthis reinterpret the battlefield escalation as grounds to pressure shipping again, even after the 2025 U.S.-Houthi Red Sea truce. This would be the main channel through which a Yemen battlefield event becomes material for global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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