Contained Frontline Escalation

The most likely path is that the violence remains concentrated around established front lines such as Marib, Taiz, and border-adjacent areas rather than expanding into a regional conflict. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UN have strong incentives to prevent the fighting from undoing the 2025 Red Sea shipping truce.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.