Possible scenario
Broader Civil War
18% Chance
The casualty spike becomes the opening phase of a wider breakdown in Yemen's fragile post-truce order. The Houthis, the Presidential Leadership Council, and southern-aligned forces harden positions, complicating Saudi and Emirati diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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