Possible scenario
Mexico Coast Disruption
28% Chance
A less likely but material scenario is that Simon tracks closer to Mexico’s Pacific coast, causing damaging wind, flooding, and transport disruption. The near-term economic effects would be regional, concentrated in tourism, airports, ports, and insurers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Finance -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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