Possible scenario
Counter-Autonomy Race
20% Chance
China and the United States both treat long-range unmanned control as part of the Pacific deterrence competition. The likely outcome is more investment in electronic warfare, resilient networks, and dispersed command nodes rather than immediate conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- BA+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.