Possible scenario
Talarico Upset Win
31% Chance
James Talarico converts the early October polling edge into a genuine upset by dominating college-educated suburbs and improving Democratic margins in Texas metros. Paxton’s legal baggage and impeachment history remain salient despite the Republican spending flood.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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