Possible scenario
Recount And Litigation
19% Chance
The massive outside spending produces saturation but not separation, leaving the race within recount territory. Both campaigns challenge ballots and national parties treat Texas as decisive for Senate math.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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