Possible scenario
Paxton Narrowly Wins
38% Chance
The MAGA Inc and Senate Leadership Fund spending surge successfully nationalizes the race and rebuilds Republican turnout for Ken Paxton. Talarico remains competitive in suburban Texas, but Paxton benefits from Trump endorsement, late negative ads, and GOP straight-ticket loyalty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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