Possible scenario
GOP Attack Sticks
28% Chance
Ken Paxton and allied conservative media turn the retracted comment into a broader argument that Talarico is too culturally liberal for Texas. The issue fits the existing Republican line of attack after Democrats' recent rightward shift on transgender issues.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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